POLLS – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  All but three polls show Hillary Clinton with a lead of from 4 to 12 points.

The exceptions are the L.A. Times tracker, Rasmussen, and, most important, IBD/Tipp, which has the best track record in the last three presidential elections.  L.A. Times and IBD have flipped in the last few days from a narrow Trump lead to a razor-thin Clinton lead.  Ras still shows a two-point Trump lead.

Both Ras and IBD are now publishing advisories noting that they are not among the majority of polls.  I don't know if this is caution or bravado.  They may be saying, "Look, we could be wrong."  Or, they could be saying, "We're brave and we're right."

This is what IBD says: 

Unlike many other polls, the IBD/TIPP Poll continues to show a tightening race, as the candidates and their surrogates slug it out in public in the waning days until the Nov. 8 polling date.

In the latest Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, Clinton stands at 45.0% to Trump's 39.4%, a 5.6% advantage in the four-way contest. In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton takes 47.9% to Trump's 42.0%, a 5.9% difference.

Rasmussen puts it this way:

Rasmussen Reports is one of three national polls that still shows the race as competitive with two weeks to go; most others portray Clinton with a wide – and, in some cases, growing - lead.

COMMENT:  Who knows?   Polls in battleground states generally favor Clinton, who is now projected by some reputable services to get more than 300 electoral votes.  A candidate needs 270 to win.

But there are still two weeks to go.  The odds heavily favor Clinton, but a dramatic event could disrupt predictions.  If truth be told, dramatic events rarely happen.  The issue now is whether the bulk of the polls are accurate, or whether the three holdouts are seeing something that the others have missed.

October 24, 2016